不同比赛情境下中国足球超级联赛关键跑动表现指标探析

Analysis on Determinant Running Performance Indicator under Different Match Situation in Chinese Football Association Super League

为探究不同比赛情境下中国足球协会超级联赛关键跑动指标,以2015、2016两个赛季中超联赛非平局比赛为样本(n=347),以16项跑动表现指标为自变量,以比赛胜负为因变量,采用独立样本t检验和步进式判别模型分析,对不同实力球队(上游、中游、下游)对阵情形下的关键跑动指标进行探析。结果:1)不论对阵双方球队实力如何,比赛总跑动相关变量均不是影响比赛胜负的关键跑动指标;2)本方控球时相关变量,冲刺跑距离是影响所有对阵情形下比赛胜负的关键指标,跑动总距离在中游对阵中游、下游对阵中游/下游时为影响比赛胜负的关键指标;3)对方控球时相关变量,冲刺跑距离在上游对阵上游、下游对阵中游时为影响比赛胜负的关键指标,高强度跑距离在中游对阵上游、下游对阵下游时为影响比赛胜负的关键指标,跑动总距离在中游对阵下游、下游对阵下游时为影响比赛胜负的关键指标;4)本方控球时冲刺跑距离可以较好地反映球队的进攻表现。

To explore the key running indicators of different match situation in Chinese Football Association Super League, the sample used the wining and losing matches（N=347） from 2015 and 2016 season in CSL, 16 running performance indicators were selected as independent variables, match result（win, loss） were selected as dependent variables, independent sample t-test and discriminant analysis model were used to explore the key running performance indicators in matches of different levels teams（top-level, middle-level, low-level）played against. The results showed that 1） No matter how the strength of the both teams, the match running performance relevant variables were not the key running indicator that influence the match outcome. 2） For the match running performance with ball possession relevant variables, sprint distance was the key running indicator no matter how the strength of the both teams, total distance was the key running indicator when middle-level teams against middle-level teams, low-level teams against middle-level teams and low-level teams. 3） For the match running performance without ball possession relevant variables, sprint distance was the key running indicator when high-level teams against high-level teams, low-level teams against middle-level teams, high intensity distance was the running indicator when middle-level teams against high-level teams, low-level teams against low-level teams, total distance was the key running indicator when middlelevel teams against low-level teams, low-level teams against low-level teams. 4） The indicator of sprint distance with ball possession was able to reflect attacking performance.