基于多区域投入产出分析的京津冀地区虚拟水核算

Virtual water analysis for the Jing-Jin-Ji region based on multiregional input-output model

通过贸易与消费调控实现区域水资源优化配置已成为缓解地区水资源压力的途径之一。跨区域投入产出分析可为地区间虚拟水贸易战略提供依据。基于2012年京津冀地区投入产出表与生产用水量构建了跨地区虚拟水核算模型,计算了隐含在经济贸易中的虚拟水总量及各地区各部门的直接用水系数、完全用水系数和拉动系数,分析了各部门虚拟水进出口情况,识别了重点耗水部门。结果表明:京津冀地区呈现虚拟水净出口状态,其中净出口部门主要为北京的服务与交通业,河北的农业和制造业。京津冀的农业、矿业和水供应业在生产过程中直接消耗水量大,应注重提升用水效率及节水技术的开发;三地制造业、建筑业和服务与交通业的平均拉动系数较大,这说明其他部门生产活动对该部门依赖性较大,其单位产出的提高将带动整个地区更多虚拟水量的投入。此外,河北的农业和制造业为京津冀各部门输送了大量虚拟水,为各部门生产提供了支撑,是节水的重点部门,应着重调整其产业结构,并从直接和间接用水两方面入手减少水资源消耗。计算了京津冀地区不同部门的直接、间接水资源消耗、水资源消耗拉动系数,以及部门间的虚拟水贸易情况,结果可为该地区部门间水资源配置和虚拟水战略的制定提供基础。

The optimization of regional water resources via regulation of trade and consumption has been considered as an alternative to alleviate the severity of water shortage. The multiregional input-output （MRIO） analysis makes it possible to explore virtual water trade among regions. This study established a virtual water accounting model for the Jing-Jin-Ji region based on the MRIO, combining the economic input-output table and sectoral water consumption in 2012. The import and export of virtual water for different regions and sectors were analyzed by calculating the direct water use coefficient, total water use coefficient, the final consumption of virtual water, and virtual water trade volume. The results show that the Jing-Jin-Ji region is a net virtual water exporter. Main net exporters of virtual water include the service and transport sector in Beijing and the manufacturing and agricultural sector in Hebei. From the perspective of the driving coefficient, manufacturing, construction, services, and transport in Jing-Jin-Ji region have high cumulative water input, but low direct water input, implying they need more indirect water inflow from other sectors for production. Moreover, it is evident that the agricultural and manufacturing sector in Hebei has high virtual water outflow, indicating that these should be the key sectors for water-saving management through reducing water consumption from both direct and indirect perspectives. By investigating direct water consumption, indirect water consumption, water use coefficients, driving coefficients, and the virtual water trade among sectors in the Jing-Jin-Ji region, we could identify the key sectors and pathways for water consumption and thus provides a solid foundation for virtual water trade strategies to alleviate water resource pressure in the Jing-Jin-Ji region.