知识进化视角下科学文献传播网络演化与预测研究及应用

Study and Application of Translation and Prediction of the Scientific Literature Communication Network from the Perspective of Knowledge Evolution

[目的／意义]分析与研究科学文献传播网络发展趋势，为揭示科研新成果、把握科技发展脉络以及发现学科领域内前沿发展动态提供参考借鉴。[方法／过程]阐述知识进化理论及其应用，探讨知识进化视角下的科学文献传播网络预测方法可行性，通过对科学文献传播网络的演化机制分析，构建科学文献传播网络预测模型，并以科学文献关键词网络进行实证分析。[结果／结论]通过科学文献数据实证分析表明，提出的知识进化视角下科学文献传播网络演化与趋势预测方法具有可行性和有效性，可以为科学文献传播网络的趋势发展分析提供新的研究思路。

[ Purpose/significance] Analyzing and researchingthe development trendof scientific literature communi- cation network can provide reference to the following work ： reveal new scientific research achievements, grasp the develop- ment context of science and technology context and find the academic foreground. [ Method/process] At first, this paper expounded the theory of knowledge evolution and its application. And then, it discussed the feasibility of the scientific lit- erature communication network forecasting method from the perspective of knowledge evolution. Finally, it constructed the forecasting model of scientific literature communication network by analyzing the evolution mechanism of science literature communication network, and verifiedthe forecasting modehhough the keywords network of scientific literature. [ Result/ conclusion ] The empirical analysis of scientific literature shows that the evolution and trend forecasting method of scientif- ic literature communication network is feasible and effective. Besides, this model can providesnew research ideas for the trend analysis of science literature communication network.