面向城市群交通规划的道路碳排测算与分析方法

An Estimation and Analysis Method for Road Carbon Emissions in Urban Agglomeration Transport Planning

城市群正在成为我国现阶段城镇化发展的重要形态,《国家新型城镇化规划(2014—2020年)》提出要大力发展城市群,并以城市群为单位制定了短期和中长期规划方案。目前,城市群交通规划缺乏适用的道路网碳排测算与评价方法,即以道路网碳排测算与评价为目的,不同口径的基础数据缺乏一套合理的利用方法。基于燃油销售、车辆保有、交通规划模型及城镇人口4个不同口径的数据源,设计了以车辆行驶里程(VKT)为基础的碳排测算方法。对于现状年设计了基于燃油销售数据、基于车辆保有量及基于交通规划模型的4种VKT估算方法。对于未来年设计了基于交通规划模型和基于城镇人口的两种VKT预测方法,并基于VKT估算与预测结果设计了碳排测算方法。对估算方法和预测方法都进行了数据来源、优点、局限性和反映主体的对比。综合使用以上方法,建立了对交通规划参数敏感的面向城市群交通规划的碳排测算方法。并以成渝城市群交通规划为例,应用该方法进行了案例分析。案例分析结果证明:在现有数据条件下,综合运用本研究设计方法可以对面向城市群交通规划的道路碳排进行测算与定量分析,为交通决策提供支持。

Urban agglomeration is becoming an important form of urbanization in China at present stage. National Urbanization Plan （2014--2020） proposed that the urban agglomeration is the first priority, and the short-term and medium-to-long plans are worked out. A suitable method to estimate and evaluate the carbon emissions of the road network in urban agglomeration oriented transport planning, i. e. , a reasonable method to use the basic data of different sources for the purpose of measuring and evaluating the carbon emission of road network, is needed at present. With the data of fuel sales, vehicle ownership, transportation planning modeling and urban population, the methods for calculating the carbon emission based on VKT are designed. Three methods for current VKT estimation based on fuel sales data, vehicle ownership and transportation planning modeling are designed respectively. As for the future situation, 2 VKT prediction methods based on transportation planning modeling and the urban population are designed respectively. And the method for calculating the carbon emissions based on the estimation and prediction of VKT is designed. Then, the data sources, advantages, limitations and the reflected subjects of the methods are compared. With a comprehensive application of the methods mentioned above, a method for calculating the urban agglomerationtransportation planning oriented carbon emission, which is sensitive to traffic parameters, is established. Taking the transportation planning of Chengdu - Chongqing city agglomeration for example, a case study is conducted by using the proposed method. The result of case study proved that the urban agglomeration transportation planning oriented carbon emission could be calculated and quantitatively analyzed with the comprehensive application of these methods and the current existing data, which could provide a support for the transport decision-making.