中国奥肯系数的周期性波动特征研究

A Study on the Periodic Fluctuation Characteristics of Chinese Okun’s Coefficients

本文采用函数系数非参数模型的工具变量估计方法,借助省际面板数据为样本来研究奥肯系数的周期性波动特征。研究发现：中国的奥肯系数绝对值明显低于其他国家样本的估计结果,中国经济增长的就业拉动能力相对较弱;奥肯系数不是一成不变,存在着较大波动。经济增长对就业的拉动作用在产出缺口为零附近最大,随着对潜在经济增长率的偏离,两者关系变得越来越不明显,在经济过冷和经济过热时期,奥肯系数均接近于零;中国奥肯系数呈现出一定的非对称性：相对于经济过冷时期,在产出缺口为正的时期,经济增长对就业的拉动作用更加明显,这主要可从投资减少论、人力资本退化论、劳动力囤积假设和公司风险厌恶假设等方面来解释;相对而言,东部地区的经济增长吸纳就业的能力要强于西部地区。最后本文给出相应的政策启示。

The paper studies the cyclical and asymmetric features of Okun＇ s law in China with functional - coefficient nonparametric regression models and Panel data. The results show that the absolute value of Okun＇ s coefficient estimated is lower than those of other countries, that is, the effect of economic growth on employment is weak. The value of Okun＇ s coefficient changes over economic cycles. When the GDP gap is near zero, the absolute value of Okun＇ s coefficient is the largest, and it becomes more lower as the GDP gar becomes larger. The value of Okun＇ s coefficient becomes near to zero during economic overheating and over- cooling periods. The Okun＇ s coefficient in Chins is asymmetric, that is, it＇s absolute value is larger when the real GDP is larger than potential GDP, which can be explained from the views of Investment Decreasing Theory, Human Capital Fading Theory, Labor Hoarding Hypothesis and Firm＇ s Risk Aversion Hypothesis. The employment absorptive capacity in eastern areas is larger than that of western areas.