逆回购对房地产价格影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Reverse Repo on Real Estate Price

本文通过实证研究,分别从国家层面和省份层面两个视角探究逆回购与房价之间的联系,对它们之间的关联性进行研究和比较。研究结果表明：第一,逆回购对房价所产生的影响十分显著。逆回购作为中国人民银行向市场注入流动性的主要手段,对资金密集型的房地产企业会产生巨大的影响。第二,逆回购对房地产价格的影响具有双向性。其中,逆回购的招标利率、发行频率等对房价有抑制作用,而发行量对房价有刺激作用。第三,房屋价格对逆回购的敏感程度有区域性差异。经济发展水平越高的城市或地区,逆回购对房地产价格的影响越大。经济发达的一类省份的房价对逆回购十分敏感,而欠发达的三类省份的房价则几乎不受逆回购的影响。最后,基于理论与实践,本文为实现“稳房价、促经济”的双重目标提出了一些政策建议。

Through empirical research, this paper studies the relationship between reverse repo and real estate prices from both national and provincial level. Research and compare the relevance between them. The results show that： First, the impact of reverse repo on real estate prices is significant. Reverse repo, as the main means by which the PBC injects liquidity into the market, will have a huge impact on capital - intensive real estate enterprises. Second, the impact of reverse repo on real estate prices is bi - directional. Among them, the reverse repo bidding rate, the issue frequency of real estate prices have a inhibitory effect, while the circulation of the price has a stimulating effect. Third, there is a regional difference in the sensitivity of real estate prices to reverse repo. The higher the level of economic development in cities or regions, reverse repo, the greater the impact on real estate prices. Real estate prices in the economically developed provinces are very sensitive to reverse repo, while real estate prices in the less developed three types of provinces are almost uninfluenced by reverse repo. Finally, based on the theory and practice, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations for achieving the dual goals of ＂stabilizing housing prices and promoting economy＂.