昭阳区2005～2016年丙型肝炎病毒感染者空间聚集性研究

Research of spatial clustering of hepatitis C virus positive in Zhaoyang District from 2005 to 2016

目的分析云南省昭通市昭阳区丙型肝炎病毒感染者空间自相关和丙肝发病热点、冷点区域随时间的变化情况,并探索其空间分布特征。方法对昭阳区(2005~2016)年报告的丙肝感染者进行全局空间自相关分析和局部空间自相关分析。结果昭阳区(2005~2016)年历年Moran's I值均大于0,且历年P值均小于0.05,提示昭阳区丙肝感染者分布存在全局空间自相关,空间分布有聚集性。局部空间自相关显示,(2005~2016)年聚集区域总体增多,热点区域逐渐增多,冷点区域逐渐减少。结论昭阳区丙肝感染者存在空间聚集性,聚集区域主要为城区及城乡结合部,且聚集范围正在向农村扩散。今后应根据其聚集特点,在加强城区及周围丙肝疫情防控的同时,还应注重农村地区的防制工作。

Objective To explore and analyze spatial auto-correlation and the trend of variation with time for the clustering areas of Hepatitis C virus positives in Zhaoyang District, Yunnan province, and discuss the spatial distribution features.Methods The reported cases of HCV of Zhaoyang Districtfrom 2005 to 2016 were collected, and the global spatial auto-correlation analysis were conducted by the method from spatial statistics.Results The annual global Moran＇ s I indexes from 2005-2016 were higher than 0（ all p〈0.05, ） which indicated that positive spatial auto-correlation existed in HCV positives in Zhaoyang District and there were clusters of HCV positives in Zhaoyang District.Local spatial auto-correlation analysis revealed that the hot spot regions expanded and cold spot regions decreased with time.Conclusion There were clusters of HCV positives in Zhaoyang District and the spatial clusters mainly concentrated in urban and sub urban areas.The epidemic situation of HCV had been expanding to surrounding neighbored villages and towns from the urban and sub urban areas.For the further prevention and control of epidemic situation, more attention should be paid to urban areas as the same as the villages and towns according to the spatial distribution features.