中国企业从出口到OFDI的渐进国际化——基于不确定性的视角

Chinese Firms' Incremental Internationalization from Export to OFDI:Based on the Uncertainty

国际市场的不确定性会促使企业遵守循序渐进的国际化进程。对此,文章通过构建二阶段模型,阐释了不确定性条件下企业如何由出口向OFDI动态转型。在此基础上,文章选取2000-2006年中国海关数据库、中国工业企业数据库和境外投资企业名录的匹配数据,采用倾向得分匹配法(PSM)检验出口对OFDI决策的影响,进而采用Cox回归分析不确定性条件下出口经验与OFDI决策的关系。结果发现,不确定性越强,出口经验对OFDI决策的作用就越重要,但是该作用会随着在同一市场连续出口时间的延长而依次递减;按所有权分类的实证结果进一步显示,私营企业和外资企业出口对OFDI的影响持续降低;集体企业在最初第二、三年的出口经验对OFDI决策影响最大,之后逐年降低,呈倒"U"型;国有企业的出口经验对OFDI的影响始终呈现不规律变化。

The uncertainty in the international market may lead firms to follow incremental internationalization process. This paper builds a two - period model to illustrate how firms transform from export to OFDI under uncertainty. Based on the model, the paper adopts PSM to test the influence of export on OFDI decisions, and then Cox proportional hazard model to analyze the relations between export experiences and OFDI decision under uncertainty, using 2000 -2006 data of Chinese Customs, Chinese industrial firms and OFDI firms. The results show that the more uncertain it is, the more important of export experiences are to OFDI decisions, which will decay along with the continuous export period in the same market. Further results based on ownership classification show that the importance of export experiences of private and foreign - owned firms decays. The first 2 and 3 years＇ export experiences are the most important for collectively -owned firms, and the following will decay, emerging as the shape of reversed ＂U＂ Export experiences of state - owned firms influence their OFDI decisions irregularly