地震风险与防范：渤海隧道安全的关键性问题

EARTHQUAKE RISK AND PRECAUTION:KEY ISSUE OF BOHAI TUNNEL SAFETY

地震的预测预报难度极大,但总有一些规律性可寻:地震带显示地壳脆弱部位的轨迹;地震多发于不同地形地貌的转换地带;地震发生的随机性与复发周期的模糊性;序列震、震群震、异地震之关联性等.对渤海的形成及海底地质地貌特点,地震带及相关历史地震分布,本区域现实地震状况等进行了描述.在此基础上,就环渤海区域之地震风险、隧道路经海域地震趋势及其影响力、隧道选线及防震措施等关键性问题进行了综合分析并提出了有关建议.

Though earthquake is hard to predict and forecast, some laws are chasable. Such as, seismic zones reveal the moving track of vulnerable earth crust parts, and earthquake occurs mostly in transition zones of different topography and landforms. Also, earthquake occurring has randomness and recurrence period fuzziness, and earth- quake sequence occurs gradually.Sequence earthquake, earthquake swarm and different area earthquake are associ- ated, issues including Bohai formation and seabed topography and landforms characteristics, earthquake belts and related historical earthquake distribution and this region＇s actual earthquake situation are described in this paper. Then the earthquake risk of Bohai, earthquake tendency and its influence of tunnel waters and key issues of tunnel route selection and precaution against earthquake are analyzed synthetically and some suggestions are given.