“一带一路”倡议推进的经济学分析——基于网络外部性和国际准则体系的理论探讨

Study on the Implementation of the BAR Initiative:A Theoretical Analysis based on Network Externalities and International Standards System

"一带一路"倡议实际上具有国际准则体系的内涵,而"一带一路"倡议的推进和实现,意味着这一国际准则体系为其他国家接受。在此基础上结合网络外部性、信息不对称以及博弈论的方法提出一个理论分析框架,讨论一国选择积极介入"一带一路"倡议的动态过程和影响因素以及最终的均衡结果。理论模型显示:(1)网络外部性收益的提高,对于"一带一路"倡议的顺利推进和实现有着直接和间接的积极作用;(2)随着选择积极介入"一带一路"倡议国家的增加,对一国积极介入"一带一路"倡议的可能性具有直接正向作用;(3)一国的制度环境与作为"一带一路"倡议发起国的我国制度环境的差异缩小时,其介入"一带一路"倡议的可能性增加;(4)允许一国采用与"一带一路"倡议所对应的国际准则体系趋同的方式介入"一带一路",将有利于该倡议的推进和实现。

This paper articulates the international standards system implication of The Belt and Road Initiative（ BAR）,and the implementation and realization of BAR strategy means the underlying international standards system being accepted by other countries and economies.A theoretical framework is proposed based on network externality,information asymmetry and game theory to discuss the dynamic process and influencing factors of one country＇s active involvement in the BAR strategy and the final equilibrium results.The theoretical model indicates：（ 1） the improvement of network externalities has both direct and indirect positive effects on the smooth progress and realization of the BAR strategy;（ 2） the increase in the number of countries choosing to actively involve in the BAR strategy has a direct and positive effect on the possibility of one country＇s active involvement;（ 3） when the institutional difference between a country and China narrows,the possibility of that country to get involved in the BAR strategy will increase;（ 4） allowing a country to adopt the BAR approach in keeping with the convergence of the international standards system corresponding to the BAR strategy will be conducive to the promotion and realization of this strategy.