北京社区人群基线血清IL-6和IL-10及其比值对七年间死亡危险的影响

Correlation of baseline serum interleuldn-6, 10 and its ratio with 7-year all-cause mortality in 11communities of Beijing

目的评价北京石景山队列人群中基线血清白细胞介素（IL）6、IL-10及其比值对7年随访期间死亡危险的影响。方法2005年对北京石景山11个社区年龄41～79岁人群进行基线心血管病调查，采用酶联免疫吸附（ELISA）法检测IL-6和IL-10在血清中的浓度。2007、2010及2012年进行随访调查，收集队列人群生存情况。采用Cox比例风险回归模型评价基线IL-6、IL-10及其比值对死亡的影响。结果对1539名调查对象（男531人，女1008人）共随访10263人年，7年间死亡77例。IL-6水平低、中、高三分位人群人年死亡率分别为4．86／1000人年、7．24／1000人年、10．56／1000人年（P=0．009）；调整年龄、性别后，其死亡风险比（瑚）分别为1．00、1．18（95％CI：0．64—2．19）和1．80（95％CI：1．01—3．23）；进一步调整其他因素后，HR值分别为1．00、1．17（95％C1：0．63～2．19）和1．87（95％C1：1．04—3．36）。IL-10三分位人群人年死亡率差异无统计学意义，调整其他因素后差异亦无统计学意义。IL-6／IL-10比值水平低、中、高三分位人群人年死亡率分别为4．63／1000人年、8．99／1000人年和8．93／1000人年（P=0．043）；调整年龄、性别后，其HR值分别为1．00、1．67（95％CI：O．91～3．06）和1．98（95％CI：1．08—3．64）；进一步调整其他因素后，HR值分别为1．00、1．66（95％CI：O．90～3．06）和2．09（95％C1：1．13—3．87）。结论社区人群中血清IL-6和IL-6／IL-10水平升高是未来7年总死亡的独立危险因素，其作用独立于心血管危险因素及其他疾病因素，IL-10水平对7年总死亡率无明显影响。

Objective To evaluate whether baseline interleukin-6 （ IL-6）, interleukin-10 （1L-10） as well as their ratio was associated with overall mortality risk over 7 years of follow-up in 11 communities of Beijing. Methods Data from a prospective cohort study conducted between 2005 and 2012 in 11 communities of Beijing was analyzed to examine the above associations. Serum IL-6 and IL-10 were analyzed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay （ELISA） kits. Follow-up surveys were conducted in 2007, 2010 and 2012 to collect data about participant＇s survival. Cox regression model was used to estimate the impact of IL-6, IL-10 and their ratio on overall mortality risk. Results Among 1 539 eligible participants （10 263 total person-years） , 77 deaths occurred in 7 years of follow-up. The rates of all-cause death were 4.86, 7. 24, and 10. 56 per 1 000 person-years （P = 0. 009 ） in the first, second, and third tertile of IL-6, respectively, The corresponding age-sex-adjusted hazard ratios （HR） were 1.00, 1.18 （95% CI： O. 64 - 2. 19）, and 1.80 （95% CI： 1.01 -3.23） and full-adjusted HR were 1.00, 1.17 （95% CI： O. 63 -2. 19） and 1.87 （ 95% CI： 1.04 - 3.36 ）. The corresponding rates of all-cause deaths were not significantly different among three tertiles of IL-10. The age-sex and full-adjusted HR were not significantly different inCox model. The rates of all-cause death were 4. 63, 8. 99, and 8.93 per 1 000 person-years （ P = O. 043 ） in the first, second, and third tertile of IL-6/IL-10 ratio, respectively. The corresponding age-sex-adjusted HR were 1.00, 1.67 （95% CI： O. 91 -3.06）, and 1.98 （95% CI. 1.08 -3. 64） and full-adjusted HR were 1.00, 1.66 （95% CI： 0.90-3.06）, and 2.09 （95% CI： 1.13-3.87）. Conclusion High IL-6 and IL-6/IL-10 ratio may be new risk factors to all-cause death. However, IL-10 is not significantly associated with death.