产业扶贫政策对贫困户生计策略和收入的影响——来自陕西省的经验证据

The Impact of Industrial Poverty Alleviation Strategies on the Livelihoods and Household Incomes of the Rural Poor: An Empirical Analysis from Shaanxi Province

本文利用陕西省3县6镇863户贫困户的入户调查数据,运用Probit模型和粗略精确匹配方法估计产业扶贫政策对贫困户生计策略选择及家庭收入的影响,并运用定性与定量相结合的混合研究方法对研究结果进行解读。研究发现:产业扶贫政策使贫困户参与农业种植、畜禽养殖生计活动的比例分别提高了12%和14%,但该政策对贫困户是否选择经营商业和外出务工影响不显著;相应地,产业扶贫政策显著增加了贫困户的农业种植收入、畜禽养殖收入和家庭总收入,减少了外出务工收入,但该政策对经营商业收入和家庭人均收入影响并不显著。可见,产业扶贫政策在帮助贫困户增收、脱贫方面效果良好,贫困户在该政策引导下将时间更多地分配给农业种植、畜禽养殖活动,同时减少了外出务工的时间,即生计模式向农业转移。

This article uses a probit model and coarsened exact matching to estimate the effect of industrial poverty alleviation strategies on the livelihoods and household incomes of the rural poor. The study employs survey data collected from 863 households in three counties and six towns in Shaanxi Province. It finds that industrial poverty alleviation strategies have increased the proportion of poor households active in agricultural cultivation and livestock breeding by 12% and 14%, respectively. But no significant effect is found regarding the probability for the rural poor to be active in business or rural-urban migration. Moreover, under the poverty alleviation programs, household incomes from agricultural cultivation, livestock breeding and total household income have increased significantly while wage income has decreased. Meanwhile, no significant effect is found regarding business income and per capita household income. The results show that industrial poverty alleviation strategies have brought good effects to increase poor households＇ income and expand their livelihood generating activities regarding agricultural cultivation and livestock breeding. Poor households are found to allocate more time to farming activities and reduce time and frequency in business or rural-urban migration.