M2指标失效与货币政策转型——基于货币创造渠道结构分解的视角

M2 Index Failure and Transformation of Monetary Policy——Based on the Perspective of Structural Decomposition of Currency Creation Channel

M2指标失效的本质是在经济结构不断调整、金融发展持续深化和金融创新大量涌现的背景下，货币创造渠道发生了阶段性的变化。基于结构性分解的研究结果显示，随着外汇占款的趋势性下降，各项贷款、债券净投资和股权及其他投资已经成为货币创造的三大主要渠道。现阶段M2指标失效是信贷平稳增长、外汇占款下降、商业银行影子银行业务迅速膨胀以及互联网金融快速发展共同作用的结果。2016年底以来M2增速的持续下降主要是以影子银行业务收缩为代表的金融体系内部去杠杆的结果，是监管机构加强金融监管的合理反映。本文认为，应当弱化对M2指标的关注，抓住外汇占款下降的窗口期，通过常态化的流动性管理建立价格型货币政策调控体系，持续推进利率市场化改革，完善宏观审慎政策和互联网金融监管框架，并促进直接融资比重的提升。

The essence of the failure of the M2 indicator is that the currency creation channel has undergone a phased change under the background of constantly adjusting economic structure, deepening financial development and the massive emer- gence of financial innovation. Based on structural decomposition, the results of the research show that with the declining trend of the foreign exchange reserves, different kinds of loans, net bond investments, equities and other investments have become the three major channels of currency creation. At this stage, the failure of the M2 indicator is the result of the steady growth of credit, the drop in foreign exchange reserves, the rapid expansion of the shadow banking business of commercial banks and the rapid de- velopment of Internet finance. The continuous decline of M2 growth rate since the end of 2016 was mainly the result of deleverag- ing within the financial system represented by the contraction of the shadow banking business and was a reasonable reflection of the regulatory authorities＂ efforts to strengthen financial supervision. This paper argues that we should weaken the focus on the M2 index, seize the period when foreign exchange reserves are declining, establish a price-based monetary policy regulation and control system through a normalized liquidity management, continuously push forward market-based interest rate reform, im- prove macro-orudential policies and Internet financial framework, and increase the proportion of direct financing.