基于ESDA-GWR的三重城镇化协调性空间分异及驱动力研究

The Coordination of Triple Urbanization's Spatial Differentiation and Driving Forces Based on ESDA-GWR

城镇化协调发展是提升我国城镇化质量的基本前提。在界定三重城镇化概念的基础上,本文构建了人口、资本和土地城镇化协调发展的测度指标,利用复合系统耦合协调度模型评价我国283个地级市三重城镇化的协调发展水平,并分别应用探索性空间数据分析和地理加权回归模型研究三重城镇化的空间分布及其驱动力。研究发现,我国地级市尺度的三重城镇化协调度整体有所提升,但不同地区差异明显,且存在空间相关性;在影响三重城镇化协调度的各类因素中,内部驱动力占主导地位,外部驱动力的影响较弱,人口-资本城镇化和资本-土地城镇化协调是促使三重城镇化协调的中坚力量,而人口与土地城镇化的失衡则导致了三重城镇化的失调。

The coordinated development of urbanization is the basic premise to improve the quality of China＇s Urbanization. Based on the concept of triple urbanization, a composite index system of triple urbanization coordination consisting of population,capital and land was constructed. The coupling system model was used to evaluate the coordination development of urbanization of 283 cities. We explore the spatial distribution and internal and external driving force of the triple urbanization by the exploratory spatial data analysis method and the geographically weighted regression model. The results show that the coordination degree of triple urbanization in China has risen,but there are differences and positive spatial correlations among different regions. Among the factors,the internal driving force is dominant,and the influence of external driving force is weaker. In addition, the population-capital urbanization and capital-land urbanization coordination are the main forces to promote the coordination of urbanization,while the imbalance of population and land urbanization leads to the uncoordinated development of triple urbanization.