我国城乡居民生活成本实证研究——基于SYS-GMM方法的PVAR估计

Empirical research on the people's living Cost——An estimation of PVAR with SYS-GMM

在探讨通货膨胀水平、恩格尔系数及居民生活质量影响城乡居民生活成本机制的基础上,构建并估计基于城乡二元经济的长面板模型(LPM),探讨了各变量间的静态均衡关系;此外,基于SYS-GMM方法估计了面板向量自回归模型,并通过蒙特卡洛算法模拟动态脉冲响应函数进一步研究各因素之间的动态特征。结果表明:居民生活成本、通货膨胀、恩格尔系数及生活质量之间满足长期的均衡关系;通货膨胀的上升在消弱居民的实际购买力(负收入效应)的同时,也带来了居民消费结构的变化(替代效应),旅游、文化消费支出减少而食品等基本支出增加,从而造成食品等基本品的价格上涨,又由于后者在CPI构成中占较大权重,从而导致了CPI的相对上升。可以看出,恩格尔系数的上升会导致CPI的上升,并进一步导致居民生活质量的下降及生活成本的进一步上涨。

People＇s livelihood concern about the stability and development of China, and the cutting down of people＇s living cost is one of the most important requirements to improve people＇s livelihood. This paper firstly investigates the mechanism through which inflation, Engel coefficient, living quality impact the living cost. Based on the above, this paper constructs and estimates a long Panel Model to further the research on the long steady co-integration relations among the four variables. Based on that, this paper estimates PVAR（1） model and simulates the IRF by the help of SYS-GMM and Monte Carlo respectively. The results show that（1） the four variables satisfy panel co-integration condition;（2） the IRF explains the mechanism by which inflation impacts the Engel coefficient and living quality, and finally the living cost. This mechanism is the reason why we estimates PVAR（1） in the order of living cost, Engel Coefficient, living quality and inflation.