高原大气温度变化特征及其与东亚季风的联系

The Characteristics of the Temperature Changing on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its Connections with the East Asian Monsoon

为研究高原温度与东亚季风之间存在的联系,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,用M-K突变检验,SVD分解等方法,分别对高原各高度层的温度变化进行分析,并通过选取相关高度具体分析该高度高原大气温度与东亚季风的联系。由分析知:从1948年到2013年,近66年来高原整体大气温度总体呈上升趋势。整体气温突变的年份出现在20世纪60-70年代。高原500 h Pa温度与东亚季风联系较为密切。500 h Pa温度变化与东亚季风强度呈现负相关,500 h Pa高原大气温度降低时,东亚季风指数增大,季风强度加强。500 h Pa温度与850 h Pa风速SVD分解得出结论:当中国东北部温度有上升趋势或西南部高原地区温度有下降趋势时,新疆北部、东北部、中部及东南部风速增大,而新疆西部小部分地区及西南部风速减小。

To study the characteristics of the temperature changing on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its connections with the East Asian Monsoon（ EAM）,In this thesis,we apply the data of the average temperatures that NCEP/NCAR issued and M-K test,SVD decompositionto the analyses of temperature changing on each level of altitudes on the plateau. Then we try to examine the connections between temperatures on the plateau and the EMA by selecting the data of specific levels of altitudes.Generally speaking,the atmospheric temperature on the plateau has been increasing during the 66 years from1948 to 2013. Moreover,the sharp change of the overall atmospheric temperature occurred during the period of 1960 s-1970 s. There is a close bond between the atmospheric temperature at 500 h Pa on the plateau and the EAM. Consequently,a negative correlation exists between the atmospheric temperatures at 500 h Pa on the plateau and the EMA,when the atmospheric temperatures at 500 h Pa on the plateau rises,the index of the EAM declines and intensity of the monsoon moderates at the meantime.To disassemble the the atmospheric temperature at 500 h Pa and the SVD of wind speed at 850 h Pa,we can make a conclusion： When there is an upward trend of temperature in northeastern China or a decreasing one in southwest China,the wind speed in the part of Northern Xinjiang,the Northeast,Central and Southeast of China is increasing. Conversely,it is decreasing in few areas of Western Xinjiang and the Southwest of China.