现收现付制和名义账户养老保险制度的可持续性分析

The Sustainability of Pay-as-you-go and Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems

目的是通过理论研究现收现付制和名义账户养老保险制度的可持续性问题．在小型开放经济体中，构建具有内生生育率、死亡率和人力资本积累等因素在内的世代交叠模型．结果表明，养老金收入与人力资本积累之间存在正相关关系；无论在现收现付制还是名义账户制养老保险制度中，退休者的消费与年轻世代工作者的消费成固定比例．应该从制度外的其他因素方面寻找导致养老保险制度偿付能力不足的原因．

The purpose of this article is to theoretically study the sustainability of payas-you-go and notional defined contribution pension systems by constructing an overlapping generations model in a small open economy. The model includes endogenous fertility, mortality and human capital accumulation. The results show that there is a positive relationship between the human capital accumulation and pension benefits. The consumption ratios （retirement consumption to current worker＇s consumption） are constant both for pay-as-you-go pension system and the notional defined contribution system. So it is worth to take a careful consideration if it is necessary to take the pension reform. We should look for other factors out of the system itself that cause the solvency of the pension system.