基于灰生成速率的补水工程效益因素关联分析

Analysis of the Benefit of Water Supply Engineering Based on the Method of Gray Generation Rate

针对典型灰色相关分析模型计算中，直接采集原始统计数据为计算依据，往往未能顾及原始统计数据的的潜在规律性，数据的潜在规律性常常需要通过数据累加、累减处理才能呈现．采用灰色生成速率相关分析模型，通过对系统采集统计数据的累加操作，构造系统新灰色生成数据列，进行系统因素数据的接近性判断，进而对原始统计数据间的动态变更方式的趋向性进行说明．最后以南水北调工程通榆河补水工程效益因素分析为例，采用灰色生成速率相关判断方法，分析了补水效益和受水区域经济发展之间的因素关联性，验证了灰色准指数律的生成速率相关模型的实用性和有效性，为政府区域经济规划和水资源补水工程规划发展决策略提供参考．

According to the typical grey correlation model calculation using the direct acquisition of the original statistical data is calculated on the basis of, often failed to take account of the original data of the potential regularity, data on the potential regularity often need to through the data accumulation, regressive treatment to appear, selection of grey quasi exponent law generation rate correlation analysis model, through the acquisition system of statistical data accumulation operation, construct new grey system to generate a data column, system factor data close to the judgment, and characterization of the collection of the original statistical data of dynamic change style trend change characteristics. Finally, taking the water diversion project of the south to North Water Diversion Project as an example, the factors related to the efficiency of the water supply and the economic development of the water area are analyzed by the method of grey formation rate correlation. The practical and effective of the model of the generation rate of the grey quasi exponential law is verified.