基于残差修正灰色预测模型的北京市道路交通事故预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents in Beijing Based on Residual Correction Grey Forecasting Model

社会机动车使用量的增加带来的道路交通安全问题日益突出．对北京市道路交通事故预测进行了研究．采用灰色GM（1，1）预测模型对北京市城市道路交通事故进行了预测，并根据预测结果精度等级进行了残差修正，得出了具有科学性的预测结果．此外，通过灰色关联度分析对北京市交通事故的各相关因素进行了比较，为交通管理部门有效地控制交通事故的发生提供参考．

The road traffic safety problems caused by the increase of the use of vehicle have become increasingly prominent. The prediction of road traffic accidents in Beijing is studied in this paper. We adopt the grey GM（1, 1） forecasting model to predict the urban road traffic accidents in Beijing, and correct the residual error according to the accuracy grade of the prediction results, and obtain the scientific prediction results. In addition, through the grey relational grade analysis, we compare the related factors of traffic accidents in Beijing, and provide reference for traffic management departments to effectively control traffic accidents.