1964～2015年辽宁省日照时数演变特征及归因分析

Characteristics and Attribution Analysis of Sunshine Duration in Liaoning Province during 1964-2015 Years

日照时数变化存在时空异质性,其变化成因分析对气候诊断与预测有较高的研究价值。基于1964~2015年辽宁省23个气象站点气象数据,采用线性倾向估计、Morlet小波分析法分析了该区日照时数趋势演变规律及周期性特征,结合Mann-Kendall法检测突变时间,借助ArcGIS反距离权重插值进行空间分区,并探讨影响其变化的成因。结果表明,年日照时数呈显著下降趋势,变化倾向率为-31.158h/10a;存在37年左右的主周期、22年左右次周期;年及四季均有突变发生,年日照时数在1980年代初期存在突变,冬季突变发生最早,夏季最晚;日照时数空间分布不均,随季节变化高值区自西向东逐渐递减;日照时数与总云量、水汽压及气温呈负相关,与风速呈正相关关系。

There is temporal and spatial heterogeneity in sunshine hours, and its causes analysis is of great value for climate diagnosis and prediction. Based on the meteorological data of 23 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province dur- ing 1964-2015, linear trend estimation, Morlet wavelet analysis method were used to analyze the evolution and the trend of sunshine hours periodicity. Mann-Kendall method was adopted to detect the sudden change time. Spatial partition was implemented by using AreGIS inverse distance weighting interpolation. Meanwhile, the causes of the change were ex- plored. The results show that the annual sunshine hours decreased significantly, the trend rate is --31. 158 h/10a. There are about 37 years of the main cycle, about 22 years of sub-cycles. There has a mutation in the year and four seasons, and the annual sunshine hours appeared a mutation in the early 1980s. The earliest mutation occurred in winter and the sum- mer was the latest. The spatial distribution of sunshine hours is uneven. With the seasonal changes, the high value areas gradually decline from west to east. Sunshine hours are negatively related to the total cloud cover, water vapor pressure and temperature, and positively related to wind speed.