玉石水库影响下的碧流河水库洪水预报方法

Flood Forecasting Method of Biliuhe Reservoir under the Influence of Yushi Reservoir

流域内水利工程的建立可能会改变原有的产汇流机制,以碧流河水库为例,结合日模型和日供水,利用水量平衡估算水利工程的拦蓄作用,提出一种产流模型计算改进方法;并结合降雨、蒸发、前期土壤含水率、遥感等资料验证模型预报结果的合理性。模型计算结果表明,改进后的模型能有效提高碧流河水库的洪水预报精度,对该水库的防洪调度具有重要意义。

The establishment of water conservancy projects in the watersheci may change the original water yielding and runoff routing mechanism. In this paper, taking Biliuhe Reservoir for an example, combining the daily model and the daily water supply, an improved runoff calculation model is put forward, which uses the water balance to estimate the storage function of the water conservancy project. And then the rationality of the forecast results is verified according to the information of rainfall, evaporation, pre-soil moisture content and remote sensing data. The results show that the im- proved model can effectively increase the flood forecasting accuracy of Biliuhe Reservoir, which is of great significance to the flood control of the reservoir.