基于多国面板数据对巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的检验

The Test of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect based on Multi-Country Panel Data

巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应旨在从供给侧的生产效率角度来解释实际汇率走势,预期发生经济赶超的国家通常伴随着币值上升。该理论依赖于一系列严格的假设条件,当这些假设条件不满足时,会削弱该效应。基于涵盖世界范围内182个国家（或地区）时间跨度为1960-2014年的面板数据进行实证检验后发现,在不同收入水平的国家组中,巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应是普遍存在的;同时随着经济发展程度的降低,抑制因素（诸如农业部门相对过剩的劳动力、劳动力流动的非充分性、央行货币供给的灵活性、汇率制度等）发挥的作用也愈发明显。在更长的时间跨度及更广的维度上检验后发现,该效应对汇率的长期行为有很强的解释力,是不同人均收入水平国家之间实际汇率差异的主要源泉。

The Balassa-Samuelson effect is designed to explain the real exchange rate trend from the perspective of supply side＇s productivity,it is expected that economic catch-up countries are usually accompanied by an increase in the value of currencies.The theory relies on a series of strict assumptions,without which the BS effect will weaken.Based on the panel data covering 182 countries（or regions）in the world from 1960 to 2014,the empirical test reveals that in all country groups at different income levels,the BS effect exists;at the same time,with the decrease in economic development levels,the role of inhibitory factors（such as the relative surplus of labor force in agricultural sector,the non-sufficiency of the labor force flow,the flexibility of central bank＇s monetary supply,exchange rate regime etc.）are also becoming increasingly apparent.Testing the BS effect in longer time span and wider dimensions,it is fiound that this effect has a strong explanatory power on the long-term behavior of the exchange rate,and it＇s the main source of real exchange rate differences between countries at different levels of per capita income.