金属价格波动对经济发展影响的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Impact of Metal Price Fluctuation on Economic Development

文章基于2012年投入产出表编制社会核算矩阵（SAM）,运用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型模拟金属价格的变动情况,即对金属价格设定四种不同的变动幅度,据此分别考察各部门产出、要素价格和各经济指标相对于基期时的变化情况。结果表明,金属价格的变动除了会影响经济的增长,还会导致产业结构的变化。对大多数部门而言,部门产出与金属价格的变动呈负相关,并且下跌带来的扩张效应强于上涨。

Based on the 2012 input-output table, this paper draws up social accounting matrix （SAM） and uses the CGE mod- el to simulate metal price movements, which means setting four different amplitudes of fluctuation for metal priees, on the basis of which the paper separately examines the changes of output, factor prices and various departments＇ economic indicators relative to the base period. The result shows that the changes in metal priees will not only ＇affect the growth of eeonomy, hut also lead to the change of industrial structure. As for most sectors, sectoral output is negatively correlated with the change in metal prices, and the downturn has a stronger expansionary effect than the increase.