去产能战略的影响评价及建议——基于动态CGE模型的研究

Evaluation and Route of Overcapacity Cutting:Analysis Based on Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

产能过剩一直是中国近年来挥之不去的"顽疾"。作为国家当前重大战略决策,虽然去产能的重要性和紧迫性已为全社会高度认可,但对于如何有序平稳化解过剩产能的现实问题,目前还鲜有系统深入的定量研究。本文基于动态CGE模型,从经济和社会角度对去产能的影响进行了系统考察。结果表明,去产能确实会导致GDP、行业产出、出口以及财政收入等增速下行,以及就业减少等各种"阵痛",但与此同时也会带来总体能源强度显著下降的积极效应。从影响大小和模式看,去产能对就业和出口的影响较大,对GDP和财政收入的影响相对较小,不同行业因去产能规模、产品特征以及产业关联等方面的差异,对各变量的影响存在较大的差别。

Overcapacity has long been a problem difficult to solve in China. As the major strategic decisions currently in China, the importance and urgency of overcapacity cutting has been highly recognized by the whole society, but how to cut overcapacity orderly and smoothly, there is a little systematic and quantitative research. In this paper, we investigate the impacts of overcapacity cutting from the perspective of economy and society. The results show that： overcapacity cutting will pull down the growth rate of GDP, export, and fiscal revenue, and employment opportunities will also be reduced. But at the same time, it also has a positive effect on the decline of energy intensity. From the size and mode, the impacts of overcapacity cutting on employment and exports are greater, and impacts on GDP and fiscal revenue are relatively small. Due to the differences in the scale of overcapacity cutting, product characteristics, and industry associations, there are obvious difference of overcapacity cutting impacts among different industries.