对外直接投资、逆向技术溢出与省域创新能力——基于中国省际面板数据的门槛回归分析

OFDI,Reverse Technology Spillovers and Provincial Innovation in China:A Threshold Test Based on Interprovincial Panel Data in China

本文基于2003-2015年间中国的省际面板数据,构建面板门槛模型,实证分析对外直接投资(OFDI)逆向技术溢出及其省域创新能力的"门槛效应"。研究结果显示:OFDI逆向技术溢出在我国存在显著的创新能力"双门槛效应",以此可以分为创新三阶段:创新前阶段、创新启动阶段和创新加速阶段。2005年之后,我国进入创新启动阶段,OFDI逆向技术溢出存在显著的正溢出效应;2015年标志着我国进入创新加速阶段,OFDI逆向技术溢出效应进一步增强,OFDI成为仅次于自主研发投入、人力资本投入之外,提升我国自主创新能力的的第三大创新主渠道。我国应该坚定"走出去"战略,提高省域创新能力以促进OFDI的逆向技术溢出效应。

The threshold model is constructed based on Chinese panel data to analyze the reverse technology spillover of OFDI and its ＂threshold effect＂ on provincial innovation capability. The results show that the reverse technology spillover of OFDI have the ＂dual-threshold effect＂ based on the provincial innovation capability. This can be divided into three phases of innovation ： pre-innovation phase, innovation start-up phase and innovation acceleration phase. After 2005, our country had entered into the pre-innovation phase, and the reverse technology spillover of OFDI had a significant positive spillover effect. In 2015, China had entered into the innovation acceleration phase, and reverse technology spillover effect of OFDI was further enhanced. At the same time, after our country＇ s R＆D investment and human capital investment, the reverse technology spillover obtained through OFDI has also become the third major innovation channel to enhance our country＇ s capability of independent innovation. The empirical results approve that China should strengthen the ＂going global＂ strategy and enhance its provincial innovation capability so as to promote the reverse technology spillover effect of OFDI.