政治不确定性与企业行为研究述评

A Literature Review of Political Uncertainty and Firm Behavior

政治影响经济结果的一个重要途径是政治不确定性。领导人选举和社会政治动荡等政治事件会引发政治不确定性,进而激起压倒性的长期动荡,渗透到经济的各个方面。在金融危机之后,政治不确定性对企业行为的影响被各大新闻媒体和财经媒体广泛报道,并成为学术研究的热点。鉴于此,本文对相关的国内外研究进行梳理,从政治不确定性的测量、理论基础、以及实证研究结果三方面进行述评。政治不确定性的理论基础包括递延期权、增长期权、风险溢价、Hartman-Abel效应。目前的实证研究主要以领导人选举、社会政治动荡衡量政治不确定性,研究其如何影响企业投资活动、融资活动、利润分配、企业价值、企业税收、会计质量、成本管理。

One important way in which politics ishypothesized to influence economic outcome is through the channel of political uncertainty. Political events such as leather election and socio-political unrest will induce political uncertainty, which can foment overwhelming and long-lasting turbulence and penetrate into every aspect of an economy. After the financial crisis, this impact of political uncertainty on firm behavior has been covered at lengthby major news outlets and the financial press, and has been the subjectof academic research. Accordingly, the paper make a systematic review of the relevant literature through three aspects: theoretical basis, the measurement of political uncertainty, and the results of empirical research. Theoretical basis of political uncertainty include deferred options, risk premium, growth options, and Hartman-Abel effect. The current empirical research use leader elections and socio-political unrest as the proxy for political uncertainty, to examine the effect of political uncertainty on investment activities, financing activities, distribution of profits, firm value, corporation taxation, quality of accounting information, and cost management.