基于综合计量技术的人民币汇率制度演化分析

Analysis of the Evolution of Renminbi Exchange Rate Regimes based on a New Econometric Methodology

为更好地理解人民币汇率制度实际改革进程,本文运用综合计量技术,分析了人民币汇率制度自2005年7月实施改革以来12年间的真实演变过程。我们发现,除了全球金融危机爆发的2008—2010年,人民币汇率的浮动性一直处于不断提高之中,而"一篮子"货币中赋予美元的权重从改革最初的高于0.9逐渐降低到近年来的0.45-0.50之间并趋于稳定。我们特别对"8·11汇改"后汇率制度的演化进行了更细致的分析。"8·11汇改"进一步提高了人民币的浮动性和市场化程度,之后一系列后续改革措施的出台,体现出"渐进性""稳健性"和"累加性"等诸多特点。本研究不仅分析总结了中国汇率制度改革的实际效果与经验,对其他国家的相关改革也具有很好的借鉴意义。

To better understand the de facto reforms regarding Renminbi Exchange Rate Regime, this paper applies a new econometric technique to estimate the evolution of Reminiscent Exchange Rate Regimes for the past twelve years since July 2005. Our estimations show that the flexibility of Renminbi has kept rising except for the period of 2008--2010 when the global financial crisis occurred. The basket weight assigned to the US dollar has been reduced from more than 0.9 down to a recently stable range between 0.45 and 0.50. In particular, we analyze the evolution of Renminbi for the period after the important ＂Au- gust 11 Exchange Rate Regime Reform＂ . The new Exchange Rate Regime Reform starting at August 1 lth, 2015 has further in- creased the flexibility of Renminbi. Subsequent reforms following the ＂August 11 Reform＂ are characterized by gradualism, steadiness, and cumulativeness. This research not only analyzes and summarizes the real outcomes and experience of China＇s ex- change rate regime reform, but also provides valuable guidance for related reforms in other countries.