基于空间计量模型的中国环境污染评价及影响因素分析

Evaluation and impact factors of environmental pollution of China based on spatial metric model

基于熵权法测算了环境污染综合指数,依据Moran指数与散点图、LISA集聚图分析了我国环境污染的空间集群和集聚状况,运用空间面板数据模型实证分析了环境污染的影响因素。结果表明,我国各省域的环境污染水平和发展趋势呈现出一定的波动性,但工业污染排放已趋于较为稳定的状态,居民生活污染已成为区域污染的主要污染源;我国各省域的环境污染具有较强的区位差异性,在空间上存在着显著的集聚性和集群现象;不同因素对环境污染产生的冲击方向及强度均有所差异,但科技水平、对外开放程度、环保意识等因素对环境污染具有反向冲击:开放程度、科技水平的提升可促进生态环境质量的改善,环保意识的增强有利于环境污染水平的降低,但具有一定的滞后性。基于以上结论,提出了强化区域环境治理合作、人口空间适度集聚、扩大环境治理投资规模、深化对外开放程度和鼓励产业科技创新等政策建议。

We calculated the environmental pollution index based on entropy method, analyzed its spatial features of clustering and agglomerating according to Moran scatter plot and LISA gathering figures, and investigated the impact factors of environmental pollution by using the spatial panel data model. The results indicated that the environment pollution level and associated development trend of China presented a certain degree of fluctuations; however, the industrial pollution emissions were relatively stable, and household living pollution became the main source for regional pollution. In addition, the environmental pollution showed strong regional differences, featured by significant spatial clustering and agglomeration. The results also manifested that the influences of different factors on environmental pollution varied in their direction and strength. Specifically, scientific technology, openness, and environmental awareness exerted reverse influences on the environmental pollution. This is because the openness and scientific technology can improve environmental quality, and the environmental awareness can lead to low environmental pollution, but with time-lag effects. Based on those findings, we put forward some suggestions in related policy, including strengthening cooperation in regional environmental governance,moderating agglomeration of population investment, deepening the opening-up and technology. space, enlarging the scale of environmental governance level, and encouraging innovation in industrial science