基于分布式水文模型的嘉陵江流域暴雨洪涝致灾风险阈值研究

A Study of Thresholds of Rainstorm-Flood Hazard Based on HBV-D Hydrological Model Over the Jialing River Basin

以四川嘉陵江流域的金溪水文站以上段为研究区域,基于分布式水文模型HBV-D对河流暴雨洪涝灾害的临界面雨量阈值进行研究,结果表明:模型在嘉陵江流域的适用性较好,在2013-2015年率定期和2010-2012年验证期的Nash效率系数分别为0.68和0.67,相关系数超过0.82;通过模型反演建立降水—流量—水位的关系,得到了不同前期基础水位的24h面雨量和水位的关系,将金溪水文站的警戒水位(306.5m)和保证水位(308.7m)作为临界判别条件,确定了不同前期基础水位的致灾临界面雨量.

In a case study of the upstream basin of the Jinxi Hydrologic Station in the Jialing River of Sichuan,the area precipitation threshold values of rainstorm-flood hazard were determined based on the distributed hydrological model HBV-D.The results showed that this model was well applicable to the upper Jialing River Basin.The Nash efficiency index in the calibration period of 2013-2015 and the verification period of 2010-2012 was 0.68 and 0.67,respectively,and the correlation coefficients were over 0.82.According to the relationship among area rainfall,runoff and water level established based on retrieval,curves of 24-hour area precipitation and different previous water levels were determined.Finally,according to the critical criteria-warning water level（306.5 m）and safety water level（308.7 m）at the Jinxi Hydrologic Station,the area precipitation thresholds in different previous water levels were determined.