基于高空与地面观测的阿克苏河流域气候水文要素变化分析

Analysis of hydrometeorological variations based on the sounding and near-surface observations in Aksu River Basin

本研究基于地面和高空资料,分析了阿克苏河流域1960—2015年的气候和水文变化特征,并探讨了高空气候变量在径流反演中的作用。结果表明,在全球变化背景下,阿克苏河流域地表温度呈显著升高趋势,线性倾向率为0.18℃/10a(-0.09~0.43℃/10a);流域降水总体呈增加趋势,增加速率为10.42 mm/10a(2.23~21.11 mm/10a)。阿拉木图、伊宁和库车3个高空探测站的0℃层高度总体呈上升趋势。相对于1960—1989年,1990—2015年3个站的0℃层高度分别增加了88.9 m、29.4 m和7.2 m。联合使用地面气温、降水和高空0°层高度资料,能显著提高阿克苏河流域夏季流量反演效果。

Based on the ground and sounding meteorological data, the hydrological changes of the Aksu River Basin during 1960-2015 were analyzed, and the role of upper atmosphere climate in runoff reproducing was discussed. The results show that under the background of global warming, the surface air temperature in Aksu River Basin increased significantly with an rate of 0.18℃ /10a （ranging from -0.09 to 0.43℃/10a）, and the precipitation increased at a rate of 10.42 mm/10a （ranging from 2.23 to 21.11 mm/10a）. For the climate at the upper atmosphere, the 0℃ level heights of Almaty, Yining and Kuqa generally increased, and the increase reached 88.9 m, 29.4 m and 7.2 m in 1990-2015 compared to those in 1960？1989, respectively. The combination of near surface air temperature and precipitation and upper 0℃ level heights can signifcantly improve the reproducing performance of summer runoff in the Aksu River Basin.