干旱风险冲击下节水灌溉技术采用的减贫效应——以甘肃省张掖市为例

Poverty reduction effects of water-saving irrigation technology adoption under drought risk in Zhangye, Gansu

推广节水灌溉技术已成为西部干旱半干旱地区政府干预贫困的主要手段,其减贫效果如何有待进一步检验。文章利用甘肃省张掖市540份农户微观数据,运用二元Logistic模型实证分析干旱风险冲击下农户节水灌溉技术采用对贫困发生率和贫困脆弱性的影响。结果发现:(1)干旱冲击是农户致贫的关键因素,农业干旱损失每提高1元,会使农户贫困发生率和未来发生贫困的可能性提高16.6%和4.0%;(2)节水灌溉技术显著降低农户贫困发生率和贫困脆弱性,减贫效应显著。灌溉技术采用意愿每提高1个档次,会使农户当前贫困发生和未来贫困发生的概率分别下降10.5%和2.6%;(3)节水灌溉技术采用具有降低农业干旱风险冲击对农户贫困发生率的负向影响的功能,但对减缓风险冲击的贫困脆弱性效应并不显著。

The popularization of water-saving irrigation technology has become the main means of government poverty intervention in arid and semi-arid regions of China, but this remains untested.Here, based on data from 540 farmers and binary logistic modeling we analyzed incidence and vulnerability poverty of water-saving irrigation technology under drought risk. Using the time of water-saving irrigation as an instrumental variable to solve the endogenous estimation model, we restructured the application of water-saving irrigation technology and drought risk variables to estimate the robustness on poverty reduction. We found that the drought risk is a key factor in farmer poverty, and loss of agricultural drought increases of each 1 CNY will increase the incidence and vulnerability of poverty by 16.6% and 4.0%. The technique of water-saving irrigation has significantly reduced the incidence and vulnerability of poverty. The adoption willingness of irrigation technology increases each one level which will reduce the current and future probability of poverty by 10.5% and 2.6% respectively. Water-saving irrigation technology adoption absorbs the drought risk the negative effect on the incidence of poverty, but eases the drought risk effect impact on poverty vulnerability which is not significant. Poverty alleviation policy arrangements should pay attention to enhancing farmers anti-drought risk shock awareness and comprehensive capacity of farmer resistant drought risk shock; increase water-saving irrigation technology adoption of dryland farming areas in Northwest China; irrigation technology should play an important role in the promotion of technology＇s precise poverty; and build and cultivate a better rural market economic system to increase employment opportunities.