后“伊斯兰国”时代的全球反恐态势略论

The Trends of Global War on Terror in the “Post-Islamic State” Era

2017年下半年以来,随着摩苏尔和拉卡等城市陆续被收复,"伊斯兰国"在叙利亚和伊拉克境内的大规模军事存在和持续扩张已经结束,全球反恐已经进入了后"伊斯兰国"时代。从该组织发展规模、主导思想、流变特征来看,它源于"全球圣战主义"思潮,其本质是宗教极端主义与国际恐怖主义的糅合。"伊斯兰国"在叙利亚和伊拉克两地的军事溃败并不意味着该组织的彻底消亡,或是其所倡导的"萨拉菲圣战"运动将销声匿迹。未来,该组织不仅会改变方式继续在这一地区活动,甚至还有可能改变活动方式并加速在全球扩散,乃至形成新一轮恐怖活动浪潮。为应对后"伊斯兰国"时代国际恐怖活动威胁,国际社会需要科学、理性地认识产生国际恐怖主义的历史根源,加强反恐领域的国际合作。

The second half of 2017 witnessed the defeat of ＂Islamic State＂ militants in their stronghold of Mosul and Lakka, which put an end to the large - scale military presence and sustained expansion of the so - called Islamic State or Daesh in Syria and Iraq. The global war on terror has arguably entered the post - Islamic State era. the ＂Islamic State＂ stems from the third wave of global jihadist movement but goes far beyond the al -Qaeda. In essence, the ＂Islamic State＂ is a derivative of religious extremism combined with international terrorism. The military defeat of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq does not necessarily mean the complete demise of the organization or the total disappearance of the Salafi Jihad campaign. The legacy of the ＂Islamic State＂ will linger into the future with those followers altering their allegiance and switching over to undercover activities. The return of Jihad veterans to Europe and beyond will spark a new wave of terrorist activities on a global scale, and in the meantime fuel the spread of radical Islamic ideology and assault tactics. To cope with the new challenges and threats in the ＂post - Islamic State＂ era, the international community needs to understand the historical origins and evolution of international terrorism, strengthen international cooperation by establishing a cross - border platform for counter - terrorism, and work together to build a fair and rational new international political and economic order