失序的时代与中东权力新格局

The Age of Disorder and the New Power Structure in the Middle East

混乱而无序是当下国际形势发展的主要特征。阿拉伯剧变之后的中东可谓全球无序的典型。动荡的中东呈现出大国竞争新常态,且正在孕育着新的地区格局。美国独步天下的局面正在逐步被打破,"后美国时代的中东"开启大幕。美国作用的缺失和弱化带来巨大的权力真空,群雄逐鹿中东,"美退俄进"、"西退东进"、"一降两升"三大特征明显。中东正由单级向多极化加速演进。中东失序的根源在于全球及地区范围内的权力失衡与转换。中东最终走向有序,仍需很长一段时间,既有赖于新制度和规范的确立,亦有赖于全球及本地区的权力再平衡。

At present, the disorder and confusion is a remarkable feature of international situation. The Middle East after the ＂Arab spring＂ is one of the typical global disorders. Turmoil in the Middle East is pregnant with new regional pattern. The seemingly random Middle East is showing the new normal of competition among big powers. While the world order is gradually being broken, ＂the post America era＂ is also looming in the Middle East. The lack and weakening of U. S role leads to a huge vacuum of power, which accelerates the competition for the Middle East and the development of multi polarization in this region. During this process, the European Union＇ s regional role is marginalized; Russia＇ s strong return to the Middle East region makes regional countries choose to be closer to Russia; China, India, Japan and other Asian countries actively ＂March West＂, increasing their participation in the Middle East affairs; Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, UAE and other countries in the region find out that they can play new roles; Saudi Arabia and Iran start the new ＂Cold war＂ . From disorder to order, it will take a long time, depending on the rebalancing of powers in the region.