经济新常态、“全面二孩”政策与生育率波动——基于真实经济周期的分析测度

The New Normal Economy,“Universal Two-Child”Policy and Fertility Fluctuations:Based on the Measurement of the Real Business Cycle Model

通过构建一个包含生育率的真实经济周期(RBC)模型,探讨中国经济新常态背景下,"全面二孩"政策放开后生育率的波动状况。研究表明:(1)包含生育率的RBC模型,对生育率的顺周期性和反周期性都具有解释能力,育儿的消费成本系数较高时,生育率呈现顺周期性特征,反之亦然。(2)考虑到中国经济新常态的历史背景,生育率的反周期特征意味着生育政策调整后生育率会有所提高,尤其在政策实施的最初几年会有明显释放;生育率的顺周期特征意味着生育政策调整后生育率在整体上不会提高,反而会继续其下滑趋势。(3)"全面二孩"政策对育儿的消费成本形成向下的冲击,能够影响中国生育率的周期性波动,但效果并不显著。从长期看,生育政策调整后总体的生育率水平不会明显改变。

According to construct a RBC model with fertility rate,this paper explores the volatility of the fertility rate after the implementation of the universal two-child policy under the new normal economy background in China.There are some implications:(1)RBC model with fertility rate can explain the procyclical and anti-cyclical rates of fertility,and fertility rate shows pro-cyclical when the cost coefficient of childbearing consumption is high;(2)in consideration of the historical background of our new normal economy,the anti-cyclical characteristics of fertility mean that the fertility rate will increase after fertility policy has been adjusted,especially for the first few years;the pro-cyclical characteristics of fertility mean fertility rate will not improve on the whole,on the contrary,fertility rate will continue to decline;(3)through the negative impact for the child-rearing cost,the universal two-child policy could influence the cyclical fluctuations of fertility slightly.In the long term,the overall fertility rate in China will not change significantly after the implementation of the universal two-child policy.