哈什河径流趋势预测及周期分析

Trend and Period Analysis of Long-term Runoff in Khasu River

为指导伊犁河流域水资源的合理开发利用、流域梯级水电站群联合优化调度以及洪水资源利用,揭示伊犁河源流的径流演变规律,以哈什河为例,依据托海水文站1958—2015年近58 a的天然径流实测数据,采用累积距平法、Mann-Kendall相关检验法、功率谱分析和小波分析法研究天然径流量的趋势走向、突变特性及周期性。结果表明:(1)近58 a来年径流量总体呈现略微增长的趋势;(2)近58 a来年径流量在1968—1974年和1998—2010年为径流量增大的阶段,1975—1997年和2011—2014年为径流量减少阶段;(3)年径流量在1968年和2014年发生由少到多的突变;在1980年发生由多到少的突变;(4)年径流量存在3类周期变化,即3~5,9~12,17~19 a,主周期为4,11,19 a。研究分析结果可指导哈什河流域的水资源开发和梯级水电站群联合优化调度。

According to the annual natural runoff time series of Tuohai hydrological station on Khasu River in West Tianshan Mountain from 1958 to 2015,we diagnosed the runoff trend,abrupt changes and cyclic evolution pattern by accumulated anomaly,Mann-Kendall test,power spectrum method and wavelet analysis to provide technical support for the rational use of river water resources,the joint scheduling of cascade reservoirs,and to reveal the runoff evolution of the Ili river. The results are concluded as follows: 1) annual runoff presents a slight rising trend in the recent 58 years; 2) annual runoff increased in periods in 1968-1974 and 1998-2010,but decreased in periods in 1975-1997 and 2011-2014; 3) annual runoff changed with an abrupt increase in 1968 and 2014,and an abrupt decline in 1980; 4) annual runoff changed in three time-scales,namely 3-5 years,9-12 years and 17-19 years,with the dominant periods of 4,11 and 19 years.