供给侧改革背景下农产品价格变化对农户耕地利用结构的影响

Effects of Agricultural Products' Price Changes on the Structure of Cultivated Land Usage under the Background of Supply-side Reform

农产品价格变化与农户耕地利用结构的调整有着密不可分的关系,在供给侧改革背景下,农产品价格市场的信息收集与利用的重要性逐渐凸显。利用江西省及全国农业统计数据,对近年来江西省农产品价格变化特征及其对耕地利用结构的影响进行特征分析。在建立向量自回归模型的基础上选取2006—2015年江西省主要农产品市场价格与其种植面积的数据,建立市场价格和播种面积的VAR模型,并在VAR模型估计的基础上,使用广义脉冲响应对市场价格与播种面积之间的动态关系进行分析。得出不同的粮食或经济作物的价格对其种植面积有着正向或负向的响应关系,在市场化价格形成机制更为成熟之后,播种面积会对农产品价格变化反应更为真实和敏感,从而为农产品市场的宏观调控提供较准确的依据。

The price change of agricultural products is closely related to the adjustments of cultivated land usage structure.Under the background of supply-side reform,the importance of information collection and utilization in the agricultural product price market is gradually highlighted.According to Jiangxi province and national agricultural statistics,this paper analyzes the characteristics of agricultural product price change and its influence on the structure of cultivated land usage in Jiang xi province.Based on the data of main agricultural products'market prices and planting areas in Jiangxi Province from 2006 to 2015,a VAR model(vector auto-regression model)between the market prices and the sown area has been established.Based on this model,the dynamic relationship between the market prices and the sowing areas has been analyzed through the generalized impulse response function.The results indicate that the grain or economic crops of different prices have a positive or negative influence on their planting area.The sown area will change more accurately and sensitively to the price changes of agricultural products after the marketoriented price mechanism has become a comparatively mature one,thus providing a more accurate basis for the macro-control of the agricultural product market.