多层边坡稳定性可靠度及敏感性分析

Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis on Multilayer Slope Stability

结合Monte-Carlo响应面法和JC法,采用有限元强度折减法对多层边坡进行稳定性分析,构造输入参数与输出响应量之间的近似显式函数表达,提出了三维多层边坡可靠度及敏感性分析模型;通过可靠度敏感性分析,研究了多层边坡分布参数对可靠度指标的影响规律。结果表明,不同土层的随机变量分布参数对可靠度指标的影响程度存在较大差异,第1层土层的粘聚力均值及其变异性对可靠度指标影响最大。该法适用于任意分布形式的独立随机变量可靠度问题,对低失效概率边坡的稳定性分析也具有一定的精度。

Combined with the Monte-Carlo response surface method and JC method, the finite element strength reduction meth- od was used tO analyze the stability of the multilayer slope, and the approximate explicit function expression between the input parameters and the output response was constructed. Then, the reliability and sensitivity analysis models of three-dimensional multi-layer slope were proposed. The influence of multilayer slope parameters on the reliability index was studied by reliability sensitivity analysis. The results showed that there were significant differences in the influence degree of the random variable dis- tribution parameters on the reliability indexes in different soil layers. The mean cohesive force value and variability of the first soil layer had the greatest influence on the reliability index. The method was applicable to the reliability problem of independent random variables with arbitrary distribution, and also had a certain accuracy for the stability of slopes with low failure probabil- ity.