中国纸机项目大爆发——新一轮投资周期是否到来?

The booming of new paper machine investment——Will the spring of investment come again?

从2016年起新纸机投资呈现出反弹趋势,很多企业对外都宣布了新的产能计划,同时纸价也一路攀升,看起来一大波新的产能即将来临——一个新的投资周期到来了么？过去的20年内,中国的造纸企业家们争先恐后地进行了大规模产能投资（大纸机具有明显的规模效应。新纸机通常亦比老纸机具有更低的生产成本,图1）,以此提高企业的竞争力。毫无疑问,存在供给缺口的情况下,这种投资战略成效明显。

The investment and installation of new paper machines has started to rebound since 2016, when new production capacities were announced continuously and paper price began to hike since then. So will the spring of investment come soon?With further implementation of China environmental policy, millions of old and small capacities are predicted to be shut down from 2016 to 2020, which may be the reason why there are still lots of new production capacities planned lately in this overcapacity industry. But whether or not there's a new investment time coming, the competition is expected to be even fierce, and pulp and paper companies must be prepared for it.