基于CLUE-S模型的拉萨市土地利用情景分析

Land use scenariodesign and simulation based on model in Lhasa city

选取拉萨市城区作为研究对象,结合拉萨市相应的城市规划政策与土地利用变化趋势,制定了自然增长、经济发展和生态保护三种土地利用需求情景策略.结果表明:2001年和2008年两期的模拟总体精度分别为83.27%和79.26%,且Kappa指数均大于0.75,证明CLUE-S模型针对拉萨市的土地利用情况具有较好的拟合程度;到2022年拉萨市耕地面积持续下降,建设用地逐年增长,且林地和草地面积在不同的情景中均有微弱的增加,水体与未利用地相对变化较小,三种模拟情景中,研究区西部及东部变化较为明显;拉萨市建设用地扩张是景观破坏的主要原因,倡导"低碳、环保、绿色"的旅游生态旅游模式才是未来实施可持续发展的主旋律.今后政府相关决策部门可利用研究结果为拉萨市的土地可持续性发展管理提供有力的决策支持.

Lhasa city was selected as the research object. Based on the corresponding urban planning policy and land use trend in Lhasa, three land use demand scenarios were formulated for natural growth, economic development and ecological protection. The results showed that the overall accuracy of the simulation in 2001 and 2008 was 83.27% and 79. 26% respectively, and the Kappa index was more than 0. 75, which proved that the model had a good fitting degree for the land use situation in Lhasa. By 2022, the cultivated land in the studied area will continue decreasing, and the construction land increase significantly, while the forest land and grassland increase slightly in different scenarios. The relative changes of the water and the unused land were relatively small. In the three simulated scenarios, the Western and Eastern change is more obvious ; Lhasa construction land expansion is the main reason for landscape damage, so ＂low-carbon, environmentally-friendly, green＂ tourism eco-tourism model is the main theme for future sustainable development. In the future,the decision-making governmental departments can use the find- ings to provide strong decision-making support for Lhasa＇s land sustainable development management.