用动力学模型评估抗药物治疗覆盖率和剂量对流感控制成本的影响

Evaluation of the effect of treatment coverage and dosage on flu intervention cost by model of differential equations

通过建立常微分方程模型SLI_TI_NR_TR_N,分析治疗覆盖率和药物剂量对控制再生数和控制成本的影响.结果表明,要想抗病毒药物作为治疗措施能控制流行病的传播,治疗覆盖率必须达到0.5以上.治疗覆盖率不同时,使控制成本最低的药剂量不同,即为了最小化控制成本,只需分发适当的药剂量即可,如果此时还增加药剂量的分配,仅是增加成本和浪费宝贵的药物资源而已.这些结论为传染病防治乃至突发卫生事件的应对和卫生管理提供了重要的决策依据.

According to the model of the differential equationsSLITINRTRN , the effect of antiviral treatment coverage and number of doses were analyzed in controlling reproductive number and intervention cost. The results showed that antiviral treatment coverage cannot be less than 0. 5, if only antiviral drugs were used to control the spread of the pandemic. For different drug treatment coverage, the number of doses which minimized the intervention cost also was dissimilar. In order to minimize the cost of intervention measure, a modest number of doses were enough, and too many doses of antiviral drugs used to reduce transmission only resulted in increasing the cost and wasting doses. These conclusions provide a useful reference for th management department about the epidemic preparedness plans.