新能源发展趋势研究

Research on the Development Trend of New Energy

随着全球二氧化碳减排共同治理步伐的加快以及技术进步与政策跟进,我国未来新能源发展将受到"能源结构变化""新能源经济性提升""智慧电网与微电网快速发展"以及"电动汽车技术发展"的"四大驱动"。未来新能源发电的经济性将不断提高,预计到2030年,我国新能源发电经济性排序依次为太阳能光伏发电、地热发电、生物质发电、风能发电和光热发电,新能源发电相对传统燃煤发电更具有竞争力。2035年我国可再生新能源(包括风能、太阳能、地热能、生物质能,不含核电和水电)占一次能源的比重将由2015年的2.9%提高到8.0%以上。因此,2035年后新能源的快速发展将对传统油气公司产生一定影响,传统油气公司将面临如何在新能源发展中布局的问题。

With the accelerated pace of global co-governance of carbon dioxide emission reduction, coupled with technology progress and follow-up policy, China＇s future development of new energy will be driven by the four factors： energy structure changes, higher new energy efficiency, the popularity of smart grid and micro grid, and electric vehicle technology advance. The economy of new energy power generation will continue to increase in the future. It is expected that the economic ranking of new energy power generation will be solar photovoltaic, geothermal, biomass, wind and solar thermal energy in our country by 2030, when new energy power generation will be more cost-effective than traditional coal-fired power generation. By 2035, the renewable energy （including wind, solar, geothermal and biomass energy, but not nuclear power and hydropower） will account for more than 8% in China＇s primary energy, up from 2.9% in 2015. Therefore, new energy boom after 2035 will have a certain impact on traditional oil and gas companies, a problem they have to cope with amid the growing popularity of new energy.