海南省118例中老年人HIV感染者的危险因素分析

Logistic regression analysis of risk factors of HIV infection among 118 cases of middle aged and elderly people in an area of Hainan

目的探讨海南省中老年人HIV感染的情况及其相关危险因素。方法选取2011年1月—2016年12月在海南省第三人民医院性病门诊就诊的1 257例中老年人进行HIV相关感染因素问卷调查,并抽取血样进行HIV抗体检测。应用单因素分析和多因素Logistic回归分析老年人HIV感染的危险因素,并采用ROC曲线评价Logistic回归模型的效果。结果 1 257例调查者中HIV感染者共118例,感染率为9.4%(118/1 257),且2012—2016年HIV感染数量呈逐年上升趋势。单因素及多因素Logistic回归分析显示,未使用安全套、商业性行为、不知晓艾滋病知识、嫖娼行为、同性性行为及静脉吸毒是中老年人HIV感染的独立危险因素,其OR(95%CI)值分别为8.625(6.825~11.316)、5.317(4.216~7.318)、1.863(1.305~2.413)、10.216(8.215~15.437)、18.721(13.658~24.316)、10.375(8.520~16.113)。ROC曲线评价Logistic回归模型效果,其AUC(95%CI)为0.926(0.873~0.996)。结论中老年人HIV感染的发生率较高,影响HIV感染的危险因素较多,需采取针对性的预防措施,以减少HIV感染的发生率。

Objective To investigate the prevalence and risk factors of HIV infection in middle-aged and elderly peoplein an area of Hainan Province. Methods A total of 1 257 middle-aged and elderly people from STD clinic in Hainan ThirdPeople＇s Hospital from January 2011 to December 2016 were investigated by questionnaires. The blood samples were taken todetect HIV antibody. The single factor analysis and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the risk factors of HIVinfection in the middle-aged and elderly people, and the ROC curve was used to evaluate the effect of logistic regression model.Results Among the 1 257 respondents, 118 were infected with HIV, and the infection rate was 9.4%（118/1 257）. From 2012 to 2016, the number of HIV infections showed an increasing trend year by year. The univariate and multivariate logisticregression analyses showed that no use of condoms, commercial sexual behavior, unaware of AIDS knowledge, whoringbehavior, homosexual behavior, and intravenous drug use were independent risk factors for middle-aged and elderly patientswith HIV infection, and their OR（s）（95%CI） were 8.625（6.825-11.316）, 5.317（4.216-7.318）, 1.863（1.305-2.413）, 10.216（8.215-15.437）, 18.721（13.658-24.316）, and 10.375（8.520-16.113）, respectively. The AUC（95%CI） of the ROC curve was0.926（0.873-0.996）. Conclusions The incidence of HIV infection is high in the middle-aged and elderly people, and thereare many risk factors affecting it. Therefore, the targeted prevention measures should be taken to reduce the incidence of HIVinfection.