2018年外币货币市场走势与交易策略

Market Movements and Trading Strategies in the Foreign Currency Money Market in 2018

2018年，境外美元货币市场收益率曲线在美联储加息缩表等因素的影响下，曲线形态将逐步趋平。除美元外，欧元和英镑的货币市场利率也将逐步上行，日元利率则低位徘徊。预计境内美元资金面大体维持偏宽松的态势，长期限资金需求将增加，短期和长期利率水平上行幅度较大，中期限利率水平上行幅度较小。在操作策略上，建议关注中资银行境外机构外币拆借交易，在年底前降低期限错配幅度。

In 2018, under the impact of the Fed＇s rate hike and balance-sheet unwind, the USD money market curve will gradually flatten. And the euro and sterling money market interest rates will also gradually go upward, while the yen interest rate will maintain hovering at a low level. It is expected that the USD liquidity in China will maintain loose, and the long-term capital demands will increase. The short-term and long-term interest rates will rise markedly, while the medium-term interest rate will not pick up as much. In terms of trading strategies, the article recommends paying more attention to the overseas institutions of Chinese-funded banks in foreign currency lending transactions, and reducing maturity mismatches before the end of the year.