中国城市规模效率与最优规模的生态考量——基于地级市面板数据的分析

Scale efficiency and optimal scale of Chinese cities from the perspective of ecosystem: analuysis based on the panel data of prefecture-level Cities

在对城市生态系统进行理论梳理、因子分析和绩效评价的基础上,基于Au-Henderson模型,利用2004-2015年地级市面板数据实证分析了生态视阈下我国城市的规模效率特征与最优规模。结果显示:城市规模效率的"倒U型"曲线规律在经济与生态层面均成立,且城市规模的生态最优值为750万人;产业结构升级、市场潜能扩大能够显著改善城市生态系统,但是城市污染治理成效只有在人口高度集聚时才会显著提升;宜居环境建设仍是城镇化的薄弱环节。据此认为,超大城市应控制人口规模,加快改善人居环境;特大城市应降低重化工业比重、节能减排、减少交通运输成本;中小城市的政策导向应是加快吸引人口的流入。

Based on the theoretical analysis,factor analysis and evaluation of urban ecosystem,this essay analyzes with Au-Henderson Model the urban scale efficiency and optimal scale under ecological perspective using the panel data of prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2015. The results show:the law of " inverted U" curve of urban scale efficiency is true at both economic and ecological levels,and the ecological boundary is 7. 5 million people; The upgrading of industrial structure and expanding of market potential can significantly improve the city's ecological system,but the pollution control effects only improve until the cities concentrate enough; The livable environment construction of cities is still a weak point. Thereby,the megacities should control population size and improve the living environment; the megalopolis should reduce the proportion of heavy industries,save energy and reduce transportation costs;The middle and small cities should accelerate the inflow of population.