不同资本账户开放程度下的中国财政货币政策效果分析

Effects of China's Fiscal and Monetary Policies under Different Capital Account Openness

研究目标:分析不同资本账户开放程度下的中国财政货币政策效果及福利效应。研究方法:将内生化的政府支出(税收)政策以及包含汇率的价格(数量)型为主的混合货币政策一并纳入一个小型开放的DSGE模型。研究发现:随着资本账户的逐步放开,财政政策方面,减税政策刺激经济增长和促进就业的效果越来越好,政府支出政策刺激经济增长和促进就业的效果越来越差;货币政策方面,国内货币政策的调控效果及利率上升的跨期替代效应减弱。从社会福利损失的角度分析表明:无论是与内生化的政府支出(税收)政策组合还是与财政赤字政策组合,价格型为主的混合货币政策始终优于数量型为主的混合货币政策。研究创新:考察在高、中和低三种资本账户开放背景下中国不同财政货币政策组合的相互作用和经济效应。研究价值:为资本账户放开过程中合理地使用财政货币政策组合提供理论参考。

Research Objectives： This paper is to discover the effects and welfare effects of China＇s fiscal and monetary policy under different openness of capital account. Research Methods： Fiscal expenditure policy, tax policy, price and quantity mixed monetary policy are incorporated into a small open DSGE model. Research Findings： With the gradual openness of the capital account, in the aspect of fiscal policy, tax relief policies is better than government ex- penditure policy to stimulate economic growth and promote employment; in the aspect of monetary policy, the effects of the domestic monetary policy and intertemporal substitution effect of rising interest rates have been weakened. Whether it is a combination of endogenous government spending （tax） policy or a deficit policy portfolio, the price based mixed mone- tary policy is better than the quantitative based mixed monetary policy. Research Innova- tions： This paper is to find the interaction and economic effects of different fiscal and mone- tary policy combinations in China under the background of high, medium and low capital account openness. Research Value： This paper provides a theoretical reference for the rational use of fiscal and monetary policy portfolio in the process of capital account openness.