劳动收入份额、总需求与劳动生产率

Labor Income Share,Aggregate Demand and Productivity

为探讨中国收入分配变化的经济增长效应,本文构建了一个融合收入分配的总需求效应和生产率效应的经济增长模型,利用中国1978—2015年时间序列数据展开实证研究。结果表明:中国总需求增长机制主要表现为"利润拉动型",并且随着出口以及投资在GDP中占比不断提升,"利润拉动型"特征呈不断增强趋势。实际工资上升和总产出增长均会给劳动生产率带来正向效应,劳动生产率的实际工资弹性为0.34,而维多恩效应表现更强,劳动生产率的总产出弹性为0.65。在总需求机制与生产率机制的互动作用下,1978—1991年劳动收入份额上升的总产出效应为负,生产率效应为正;其余各时段劳动收入份额上升的总产出效应、生产率效应均为负,且负效应随时间增强。在整个样本期内,劳动收入份额增长率每提升1个百分点,总产出增长率、生产率增长率分别平均下降0.78和0.17个百分点。本文认为,应该转变总需求增长机制,提高劳动收入份额,形成"工资提高—总需求提高—生产率提高"的持续良性发展模式。

This paper constructs an economic growth model which integrates a demand regime and a productivity regime for changes in income distribution, and makes an empirical study based on the time series data from 1978 to 2015 in China, to study the effects of changes in income distribution on economic growth in China. The main findings are as follows： China＇s demand growth is mainly ＂profit-led＂, and as the proportion of exports and investment in GDP kept rising in past years, the economy became more and more strongly ＂profit-led＂; the rising of real wages has a positive effect on labor productivity, with the elasticity coefficient of 0.34; the Verdoorn effect is relatively stronger, with the elasticity coefficient of 0.65; when combining demand regime together with productivity regime, in the sub-sample period from 1978 to 1991, if labor income share increases, the output effect is negative, and the productivity effect is positive; in other sub-sample periods, if labor income share increases, the output effect and the productivity effect are both negative, and the positive effect is getting stronger as time goes on; during the whole sample period, if labor income share growth increase by 1 percentage point, the total output growth falls by 0.78 percentage points on average, and the labor productivity growth falls by 0.17 percentage points on average. Based on our research, it is suggested that China should transform demand growth mechanism and raise labor income share, and therefore establish the sustainable development mode of ＂high wage- high demand-high productivity＂.