基于全球气候变化多样性特征的战略思考

Strategic Thinking Based on the Characteristics of Global Climate Change Diversity

人类必须从适应气候多样性和气候变化多样性的角度出发三管齐下:降低脆弱性,提高恢复力,强化适应性。人类通过改变大气成分及其时空分布,改变下垫面的辐射性能、动力结构、热力性能等,不断地影响地球气候系统的时空演变过程,人类活动与气候变化已经形成了一个相互依存的体系。人类已有的适应气候变化多样性的措施,在空间上功效十分显著,同时,人们也力求使适应气候变化在时间上有更多进展。针对适应气候多样性的目标,特别是在适应极端天气与气候事件方面,要建立并完善气候变化风险应对全球机制。在与全球气候多样性共生存的发展战略下,建立全球综合灾害风险防御范式;通过全球绿色发展联盟、全球巨灾风险防御基金、全球灾害风险教育科研网络,推进全球气候变化风险应对机制。

Climate condition is essential or human survival and development,and also is an important factor affecting the sustainable development of economy and society. Climate has obvious diversity characteristics. Therefore, human beings have been living together and interacting with climate diversity. A large number of historical records show that the impact of climate on human beings has always existed,but in different spatial and temporal scales,the human beings and their activities have varying degrees of influence on climate. Since the industrial revolution,the impact of human beings on climate has become increasingly evident,and its impact has not only extended from local scale to global scale in space,but also has not been affected by climate change rate in the past four hundred thousand years. The risk of the whole world is feeling the impact of human survival and climate on the increase,with human pursuit of "heaven and earth deviation"and the "harmony between human and nature"of the object. In order to seek a path of that,human beings should to deal with the disaster risk. In this study,the diversity and severity of climate change impacts on global sustainable development are systematically analyzed from the aspects of diversity of climate,diversity of climate change risk,diversity of response to climate change. With the interaction and relationship of human social activities and the climate system,this study proposes human society and climate change is the survival of the paradigm,and according to the paradigm,and puts forward some suggestions to tackle the global climate risk mechanism.