极端气候事件社会经济影响的风险研究:理论、方法与实践

Study on the Risk of Socio-economic Impacts of Extreme Climate Events: Theory,Methodology and Practice

极端气候灾害的社会经济影响及风险评估是气候变化和灾害风险管理研究中的热点问题。利用强度—影响面积—持续时间(IAD)三个维度定义极端事件,创建IAD三维度极端事件界定与辨识方法;构建极端事件社会经济影响风险评估方法和5种共享社会经济路径相应的人口经济预估方法。以干旱对连片特困区人口影响的风险评估为实践案例,结合未来社会经济发展的动态变化基础数据,阐明极端事件社会经济影响的风险评估理论和方法。该方法可为研究区未来社会经济发展路径的选取以及气候变化适应性对策的制定提供重要的科学依据。

The socio-economic impact and risk assessment of extreme climate disasters are hot issues in the study of climate change and disaster risk management. The definition and identification methods from three dimensions of extreme events, called IAD method is introduced, and methods of risk assessment of socio-economic impact of extreme climate disasters,the forecast method of future social and economic data under the five shared socioeconomic pathways are represented. With the examples of the impact of drought disasters on population,the theory and methodology of the IAD model in risk and impacts assessment of extreme climate disasters is illustrated. In combination with dynamic social and economic data,it can provide a method for quantitative disaster response.