高铁列车密度与旅客需求强度的关联分析

Analysis on the correlation between train density and travel demand intensity for high-speed railway

为了评价高铁列车运行图是否吻合旅客的时变需求,可以针对时变需求进行客流分配,利用旅客出发时间偏差程度来评价。若未知时变需求的分布状况,则不能采用这种评价方法。本文研究如何运用高铁系统运营数据,评价列车运行图是否吻合旅客时变需求。通过定义较小时空单元及时空单元中的运输能力、客流量和客座率,来描述列车密度和出行需求及其关系。以京广高铁等线路的运营数据进行数值分析发现:合理的列车运行图在需求越高的时空区域,平均运输能力越大;在运输能力越大的时空区域,平均客座率越高。尽管数值分析中采用的是实际运量,但该特征表明列车运行图与出行需求相吻合。可以运用该特征来评价列车运行图,并适用于大规模高铁网络。

In order to evaluate whether the high-speed train diagram is in accordance with the time-dependent travel demand of passengers, the passenger flow can be assigned according to the time-dependent travel demand and the departure time deviation can be used to evaluate. However, if the distribution of the time-dependent travel demand is unknown, this evaluation method cannot be used. This paper studied the utilization of high-speed railway system operation data, to evaluate whether the high-speed train diagram is consistent with the time-dependent travel demand. By defining the smaller space-time units, the transport capacity, passenger flow and load factor in the space-time units, the train density, travel demand intensity and their relationship were described. Based on the numerical analysis of the Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed railway system operating data, it was found that the average transport capacity is lager in the space-time quadrant with higher demand in the reasonable train diagram, and the average load factor is higher in the space-time quadrant with larger transport capacity. Although the actual traffic volume data was used in the numerical analysis, the feature indicates that the train diagram corresponds to the travel demand. This feature can be used to evaluate the train diagram and apply to large-scale high-speed railway network.