新旧动能转换背景下地方财政金融风险--基于贵州和陕西的调研

Local Fiscal and Financial Risks under the Background of the Conversion of New Kinetic Energy of Economic Growth——Based on the Investigation in the Provinces of Guizhou and Shaanxi

本文是中国财政科学研究院2017年西部财政经济运行调研的阶段成果。调研发现2017年贵州、陕西两省供给侧结构性改革初见成效,新旧动能转换加快,但是同时仍然存在着一些风险隐患,例如投资主导增长、资源路径依赖、政策依赖、人才外流与科研成果转化率低、扶贫异化、PPP政策约束、政府风险管理能力不足等,这些都可能诱发地方财政金融风险,本文将基于风险分析给出相应的政策建议。

This paper is the research report of the fiscal and economic operation investigation in the Western of China, conducted by Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences. We find that the supply-side structural reform of Guizhou and Shaanxi provinces in 2017 has achieved initial results. The process of conversion of old kinetic energy of economic growth with new ones is speeding up. But there are still some hidden risks, such as investment-driven growth model, resource path dependence, policy dependence, brain drain and low conversion rate of scientific research achievements, poverty alleviation alienation, and policy constraints of PPP and insufficient ability of government risk management, which may induce the local fiscal or financial risks. Based on these analyses, we give our policy recommendations.